Clean Plunge / Dirty Plunge: Baltic Tanker Indices - Week 2 2019

January 13, 2019

 

Welcome to 2019. Well, a week or two certainly makes a difference, doesn't it? Our last commentary was for Week 50, 2018 and we posted dry bulk and tanker charts through the holiday period, watching as the black marks began to pile up. Our friend Jerome Sorrel summed it up well on the DryBulkPelagos blog - "the sound of the deflating shipping market."

 

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CLEAN TANKERS


For Week 2 of 2019, our previous comments on peakyness in the Clean Tanker index might have borne some fruit. Once upon a time, back in 2018/Week 48 we expressed concerns about how peaky the Clean Tankers might be. Naturally, right after that the index surged upwards, just popping through the 900 mark.
Running through Week 51 of 2018 however, the index took a pointed downturn, not pausing until it poked a little through our possible support thoughts around 725-750 to close at 667.
Of course, the index up-surge made us look at support closer to the low 800s, but 'twas not to be. 

Perched around the mid-to-upper 600s, the chart  gives us a small upper candlestick wick and thoughts of further down-moves, although it's possible that our previous 725-750 support zone is exerting a little influence. The RSI didn't fall that far in the downswing, staying at off-peak but relatively high values at 58.49. The MACD headed towards a bearish signal-line crossing but has a way to go yet.

Let's take a breath and see if the index is indeed taking a rest, and we'll continue watching the low 700s for further moderating influence.

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DIRTY TANKERS

 

In Week 2 the Dirty Tanker Index continued to tumble, bouncing off our previous 1220-1250 upside resistance ideas, which we mentioned back as far as 2018/Week 45.
As we eyed our previous support thoughts around 900-925, the index weakened its plunge a little and fixed just above that zone at 929.

The MACD cleanly crossed the signal line into bearish territory, while the RSI still hinted at some remaining index strength as it declined gently to 57.72.

It remains to be seen whether the index will take a solid poke at the 900-925 zone, or if the recentheavy weakness is ready for some consolidation.

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