Handies at a Crossroads? Baltic Dry Indices - Week 50 technical commentary.

December 17, 2018

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 As we head to the Christmas break, we at Superior Maritime would like to extend our very best wishes for this festive season to you and yours, no matter which holiday you celebrate. We'll see you in 2019.

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HANDYSIZE


Week 50 saw further weakness in the Handysize Index, as it dipped below Week 49's close and saw an ending fix at 617. With the index pushing into our support ideas in the 615-620 range, it remains to be seen if Week 49's rest is now being tested.

The MACD just crossed its signal line to the bearish side and the RSI faded to an off-peak 64.85, still giving us the impression that the Handies are at a crossroads of sorts.

An upside pull-back could see some resistance in the 675-700 area, but the signs appear gloomier for the moment.

For now we're watching for the index to continue testing the 615-620 region. For a downward breakthrough, our support target is the 500-525 zone but, should the present 615-620 zone show some attraction, a somewhat higher downside target might not be out of the running.

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SUPRAMAX


Week 50 saw another small boost for the Supramax Index, with a small gap up on the open up to a Friday fix of 974. Our Week 44 thoughts of the 960-975 zone acting as attraction may be playing out a little.

The RSI rose to an off-bottom value of 27.78 and the MACD 's bearish trickle continued to weaken.

If the index should continue strengthening, the 960-975 zone could act as support. Any weakness at that level would have us eyeballing below 900, perhaps the 800-850 area. As previously mentioned, further strength could hint at some resistance in the 1000-1100 zone.

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PANAMAX


In Week 50, the Panamax Index showed an interesting chart after the surge and rest of the previous two weeks.

Dipping to 1445 at one point, the index improved to a close of 1478, leaving a small lower wick on the weekly candlestick - not very bearish but something to keep an eye on.
The RSI stayed close to neutral at 43.56 as the MACD lagged and further weakened its bearishness.

After rising from our Week 46 support thoughts, our next upside resistance target is around the 1575-1600 area. All this seems to give more support to our previous consolidation thoughts, but as before we are still watching for weakness and keeping an eye on the low 1400s.

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CAPESIZE


After a volatile couple of weeks where the Capesize Index fully eclipsed the ominous-looking Week 48, the Week 50 chart was quite staid by comparison. However with the closing fix at 2383, the index poked quite hard at our upside resistance ideas in the low 2000s.

The candlesticks gave us a small lower wick for Week 50, hinting at a possible lack of strength to push through our resistance thoughts but the RSI gained to the stronger side of neutral at 49.65, and the MACD closed in further on the signal line. 

The MACD has come up short on going bullish before, (see Week 44) so for now we're watching these lower 2000s for a consolidation in Capesize strength.

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