Supramax plunge losing momentum? Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 48 technical commentary.

December 3, 2018

 

 

HANDYSIZE

 

The Handysize Index closed down once more at 626 for Week 48. Traversing a tighter 7-point range, the index was left just above the 600-615 support zone we spoke of back in our Week 45 comments.

The RSI showed a slightly off-peak 71.68 while the MACD continued its fade towards the signal line and bearishness.

However, the narrower range and weaker RSI may be hints of  slowing downward momentum, and the MACD hasn't crossed the signal line just yet. Let's keep an eye on that possible 600-615 support for the moment.

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SUPRAMAX


In Week 48 the Supramax Index stayed in a tight range, losing downward momentum, and even recovered two points up from the week's low to a 944 close.

The RSI strayed towards bottoming territory at 29.54, and
the MACD 's lagging bearishness weakened a little as it pushed further into negative values. 

As we mentioned previously, perhaps our old 960-975 support ideas from Week 44 will exert a little influence. At the moment however, the index is also close to our next downside support target around the 900 region. If momentum continues to fade, could the index see some solid footing around present levels?

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PANAMAX


A welcome snap-back for the Panamax Index was seen in Week 48, easing our gloomier thoughts. This lent some credence to our support ideas in the low 1400s from Week 45's comments.

On a 1463 close for the week, the RSI fell to neutral at 40.12 and the MACD continued to show some weakness in its bearish trend.

Should support in the low 1400s continue to firm up, our upside resistance target would be in the 1575-1600 zone.

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CAPESIZE

 

The Capesize Index continued its fickle ways in Week 48. Surging into, then bouncing off our upside resistance
thoughts
in the low 2000s early in the week, the Capes retreated sharply to a 1755 close for the week.

On the candlestick chart we see a classic Shooting Star candle, although the preceding uptrend was more whiplash than "trend". The RSI moved further away from bottoming territory and strayed closer to neutral at 33.13. The still-negative MACD went flat and gave a small nod towards to the signal line and possible bullishness.

For now our Cape consolidation ideas seem to be playing out, but with no confirmation as yet on the bearish-looking candlesticks. Keeping an eye on our 800-850 support thoughts may still be warranted, with possible upside resistance still in the 2000 area.

 

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