Capes consolidate? Maybe a little... Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 47 technical commentary.

November 25, 2018

We wish all our American friends a safe and happy holiday as we roll through this Thanksgiving weekend.

May all your harvests be bountiful.




For Week 47 the Handysize Index lost another 10 points or so, closing at 635. This brought the index closer to our support thoughts around 600-615 as the Handies steadily stair-step downwards.

The RSI at 76.47 was a little off peakishness, but still hinting at some downward travel. The MACD continued its fading towards the signal line and bearishness. With no signs of consolidation yet, we are once again watching the 600-615 zone for signs of strength.

As we continue to cast chicken bones and sprinkle pixie dust, our next downside target may be somewhere in the mid-to-low 500s.




In Week 47 the Supramax Index gave a little hope that some consolidation may be in the works. After a down-week that closed at 952, can we take a little consolation that there wasn't a gap down at the week's 986 open?

The RSI was just below neutral at 37.00, and the lagging, bearish MACD entered negative values. No turnaround signs, but possibly some loss of momentum in line with our - ahem - highly technical bungee-cord comments last week

The index has now tested our 960-975 support ideas, and it remains to be seen if this zone has any pull. Our next downside target may be around 900 or so, and perhaps we will see some consolidation in that 900-950 area should the momentum weaken further.




Gapping down for Week 47, the Panamax Index took a headlong dive into bearishness. Closing at 1376, the index took a stab at our hopes of support in the low 1400s.

The RSI turned away from its divergent upward path towards neutrality at 43.96, and the bearish MACD still showed some positive value in its lagging dive.

With the 16-point gap down on the open, we could be seeing some momentum that may keep the index below 1400 in the coming weeks. So far, any attraction to the 1400s seems weak.




Bouncing back a little for Week 47 the Capesize Index closed up at 1358, confirming our previous positive thoughts. (Yes, positive thoughts  - in the Capes.) Thankfully, the index retreated above our pessimistic 800-850 support ideas.

Sporting another lower wick like the Week 46 candlestick, are the Capes showing some signs of consolidation? Perhaps backing up these ideas, the RSI recovered to a still-bottomish 24.25, while the MACD continued to fade in its bearishness, heavily into negative values.

Should this consolidation continue to build, there may be some upside resistance in the 2000 region.
If this rest is just a flash in the pan, our next downside target is still in the 800-850 zone.



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