Supras took a dive, Panamaxes rested. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 26 technical commentary.

July 2, 2018

 

HANDYSIZE


Week 26's Handysize Index carried on in sideways mode, although weakness in the index appeared stronger at first glance. Bumping along the bottom of our 575 - 600 support zone, the Handies made a fresh low in their present channel at 581.

The MACD reinforced its weak bearishness with a small
crook downwards as it approached negative values, and the RSI took an interesting plunge close to possible bottoming numbers at 23.68. 

Does this mean we still have some upward sentiment in the index? Possibly. As we mentioned for Week 25, the test could be the index taking a poke at the 550 level. In that situation, the 575 - 600 area could become our upside resistance.

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SUPRAMAX


In Week 26 the Supramax Index backed our Week 25 thoughts of weakness, to say the least. Declining from its 1085 open 
to a 1042 close, the index tagged our possible support ideas around 1075 early in the week, barely registering a pause on the way down. The index headed towards our old 975 - 1000 support area that we first identified back in Week 14 , so perhaps we'll see another test of this zone after such a tentative-looking up-trend over the past few months.

Following the drop was the RSI's plunge below neutral to 34.63, and a MACD that finally crossed the signal line after skimming along just above it for some time; bearish signals maybe, but things could moderate somewhat.

Another bold run downwards may put the RSI in bottoming territory, but it's early days yet. First, let's see how the index reacts around that 975 - 1000 area, and if any support firms up and pushes back.

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PANAMAX


The Panamax Index showed a tight range for Week 26, closing at 1336, barely down on a 1339 open. The low for the week was early-on at 1321, the index recovering from there.

Testing the bottom of our old 1350 - 1400 attraction/support thoughts, the Panamaxes rested in their bearishness, maybe offering some hope for a pullout from the Week 25 dive. The RSI, offering no hints, stayed just below neutral at 36.58 as the barely bullish MACD entered limbo, still relatively flat after its cross-over of the signal line in Week 24.

The hope remains that a return to the previous wide channel is building in this index, although the general appearance is of weakness. Let's see if that 1350 - 1400 area continues as a index pivot point of sorts. Should weakness assert itself, our next downside target is in the 1075 - 1100 area.

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CAPESIZE


For Week 26 the Capesize Index followed our Week 25 stair-stepper thoughts well above our 1500 - 1700 support ideas, closing at 2170 for the week.

The RSI pushed to 61.08 - not too peaky - and the MACD steadied in its weak bullishness, still in negative values.

Both indicators still seem to be hinting at some slight 

upward incentive.

Back in Weeks 23 and 24, we spoke of slowing momentum, and possible mild upward pressure in the index. For the moment, the index seems to be consolidating between these sentiments, with our 2500 - 2700 upside resistance not far away.

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