Cape surge continues, Panamaxes light up. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 23 technical commentary.

June 12, 2018

 

HANDYSIZE


Week 23 was a very flat week for the Handysize Index, with barely a wander either side of the 583 mark. Our 575 - 600 support zone appears be displaying some strength as the index cruises along.

The RSI retreated towards a more neutral 48.98 as the MACD stayed on the same weakly bearish down-angle.

With the MACD value almost at zero we're hopeful that some mild upward pressure could build in the index, however we're still watching for breaks below 575 in the lack-lustre handies.

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SUPRAMAX


For Week 23 the Supramax index showed renewed strength and closed up on a 14-point range at 1075. Once again closing in on our 1100 - 1200 upside resistance ideas, this slowly fizzling up-move still showed some steam.

Countering the upsurge, the flattish MACD continued to stray closer to the signal line and bearishness. The RSI retreated, but not excessively so to 61.56, perhaps hinting at some index balance.

Possibly the result of all these mild forces will be some sideways travel in the Supras, but for now some mild upward pressure may still exist.

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PANAMAX


The Panamax Index came roaring back in Week 23 with a 201-point surge to close at an impressive 1418. Our Week 22 ideas of an upward pushback seem to have been... ahem....  a little under-stated. Also, for Week 21 we spoke of potential support in the 1150 - 1200 zone, which the index has now solidly bounced up from. Solidly into our old 1350 - 1400 "attraction zone", the strength of the latest move could make this region into support.

The other indicators of course charged off in pursuit of the index, the RSI rising from bottoming values into neutrality at 45.17. The MACD bullishly took a solid turn towards the signal line while still in negative values.

Of course, the recent nature of this index has been to run in a wildly swinging channel, and it may already be at an upside resistance point as it pushes through 1350 - 1400. For now, the index has solidly returned to the channel extending back to October 2017.

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CAPESIZE


Week 23 was another solid upward run for the Capesize Index, topping out at 2220 before settling to close at 2151. Our thoughts of a bullish candlestick formation in Week 22 seem to have been borne out and gapping up on the open, our 1500 - 1700 level support ideas became more of a springboard for the index. Once again the Capes are between our 1500-1700 and 2500-2700 zones, the higher level having been an upside resistance target for quite some time.

With the index knocking on the door of 2500-2700, the RSI rose slightly to 56.12 as the MACD, still in the negative, turned away from its bearish lean towards the signal line and pointed upwards again.

With no peakishness yet noted in the indicators, we might see some further strength in the Capes at this point, but we are noting a small wick topping Week 23's candlestick. This may hint at some slowed momentum as we approach that upside resistance target.

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