Will one swallow make a Handysize summer? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 20 technical commentary.

May 21, 2018

 

HANDYSIZE


For Week 20, we saw the Handysize Index recover a little, showing a steady up-trend to close the week at 590. We'd like to think that our 575 - 600 support zone is asserting itself, but we'll have to wait for a little more confirmation.

The RSI rose with the index to 64.41, giving room for further upward motion without reaching peaky territory. The MACD, now beginning to lag somewhat, eased a little in its weakly
bearish decline.

Should this slightly positive sprout in the index start blossoming, the possibility of some upside resistance around
675 - 700 (or lower) may temper a surge. As the proverb says, one swallow doesn't make a summer, but we're watching this with interest.

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SUPRAMAX
 

For Week 20, the Supramax Index showed a stronger surge in a previously fading up-trend to close at 1069. Refreshing their run-up off our 975 - 1000 support zone that began after Week 15, the Supras reached towards our older upside resistance target of 1100 - 1200 (see Week 12 commentary).

This area has been a previous barrier for the index, and at 76.52 the RSI approached the peaking zone for the Supras. Taking a tilt upwards,the MACD barely improved its weakly bullish appearance.

It remains to be seen how much more momentum the present index upswing contains, but Week 20's action certainly scores optimism points.

 

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PANAMAX


The Panamax Index for Week 20 barely registered a gain, but closed a point up at 1243. That would be the tiny white blemish on the end of the chart below.

Still within a few points of our support ideas around 1250, this positive pause gave us a RSI still climbing away from neutral at 49.45 and an even more negative MACD.

Perhaps our Week 19 ideas about upward pressure are consolidating, and the the 1250 mark could re-assert some support. We wonder if our old "attraction zone" of 1350 - 1400 still beckons.

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CAPESIZE

 

The Week 20 Capesize Index gave us a heavy retreat from our 2500 - 2700 upside resistance zone ( which we identified as far back as Week 8 ) and fell steadily to close
the week nearly 600 points down at 2053. Our pessimistic thoughts for Week 19 of a peakish RSI with the index in the 2600s appeared to confirm the 2500 - 2700 barrier.

The RSI trailed off towards neutrality, down to 53.68 from the relative peak of Week 19, while the still-negative MACD weakened in its bullish trajectory. For Week 19 we surmised that the MACD's negative value would help maintain some upward pressure, but no such luck.

Back in Week 15 we brought up the idea that there could be a support/resistance band in the 1500 - 1750 zone, which the Capes of course blew through in their headlong upward charge. Looking back through the chart to January 2017, we can see places where this zone serves as a staging point, so to speak. However with Capesize volatility of course, there's plenty uncertainty - possibly even odds as to whether that 1500 - 1750 area acts as a trampoline or a wet paper bag.

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