Baltic Dry Indices: Week 19 technical commentary.

May 15, 2018

 

 

HANDYSIZE


In the short Week 19, the Handysize Index gapped down but stuck to an extremely tight range, barely moving at all. Still
in the midst of our 575 - 600 watch zone, the index idled along with little difference from Week 18.

The MACD continued on its bearish path, while the RSI took an interesting crook upwards to 57.81. 

Should the RSI continue making incremental upward progress while the index creeps downwards, perhaps we could see some support developing in the 575 - 600 band. Let's see what the next while brings - any further weakness will begin poking holes in that area.

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SUPRAMAX


For Week 19 the Supramax Index upswing continued to lose momentum. Showing a range of just five points with a 
slight dip to 1048 early on, the index gained some strength to close at 1053.

The MACD continued on an almost flat trajectory, very weakly bullish while the RSI gained to 68.43. At that level the RSI is on the threshold of peakishness for the Supras, but isn't quite there yet.

It's possible another test of our 975 - 1000 support zone is coming, but for now the index weakly continued its upswing from its last poke at that region.

 

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PANAMAX

 

In Week 19 the Panamax Index elbowed our 1250 support ideas, and gapped down a little to close the week at 1245.

The RSI gained slightly to 43.79, still quite neutral, while the MACD stayed steeply downward. Whether this test of the 1250 zone continues could hinge on the strongly negative MACD, and also if the RSI carries on creeping higher.

So far, the index is still just within the sideways channel that stretches back to October 2017. For now however, the index still looks weak. Let's keep watching for any signs of consolidating support and a return to that 1350 - 1400 "attraction" zone.

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CAPESIZE

 

The Capesize Index gave us another gap up for Week 19 and closed at 2630, well into our upside resistance ideas around
2500 - 2700.

The RSI rose to 67.47, knocking on the door of peakishness for the Capes (if we survey their recent history).
The MACD while on its bullish run is still negatively valued, hinting of some upward pressure remaining for the index.
Regardless of index direction, the Capes generally display more momentum than mere technical indicators can display, don't they?

While the index is still within that 2500 - 2700 zone we'll be cautious, but there's always the possibility that the could become a staging point for another upsurge. Since this is the Cape index, we'll keep a weather eye open to breaks above 3000.

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