Baltic Dry Indices: Week 18 technical commentary.

May 7, 2018

 

HANDYSIZE


The Handysize Index showed us another dark cloud for Week 18, closing solidly into our 575 - 600 downside warning at 589.
Back in Week 15's comments we expressed concerns about this zone, and now here we are.

The MACD continued down, managing to cross the signal line to the bearish side, while the RSI leaned more towards neutral territory at 52.29.

Along with the small gap down on Week 18's open, the gloom appears to be gathering. Casting an eye towards our next downside target around 500 - 525 isn't out of the picture at this point, but there is still room for the 575 - 600 area to still become support. Stay tuned.

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SUPRAMAX


For Week 18, the Supramax Index continued its run upwards from our 975 - 1000 support area. The marked lessening of momentum is quite noticeable on the chart.

The RSI rose slightly to 64.53, approaching the peakishness seen on the index's last retreat. That retreat was from our 1100 - 1200 upside resistance ideas in Week 12's comments, and the index is appproaching that zone again. The MACD, while still staying on the bullish side, weakly continued on its flattish path.

All told, a little weakness seems to be creeping into this latest up-move, so let's keep a weather eye on our 975 - 1000 zone again, just in case.

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PANAMAX


In Week 18 the Panamax Index held close to Week 17's range and closed at 1265; down on the week but still staying above
our 1250 zone of weakness mentioned in Week 14's comments.

The RSI came down to 38.99 - basically neutral while the MACD continued its lagging run downwards, now firmly into negative values. Another rush downwards could put the RSI into bottoming territory, and coupled with a heavily negative MACD could result in more upward pressure on the index.

Such a down-move would put the index at Jan/Feb 2018 lows, the bottom of the Panamax channel seen over the last seven to eight months. Let's hope the Panamaxes' on-and-off attraction to our old 1350 - 1400 zone is still there.

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CAPESIZE

 

Our volatile friend the Capesize Index took a pause in momentum for Week 18, albeit a positive pause. Fading early in the week the Capes rallied to finish off at a 2337 close, just below our 2500 - 2700 upside resistance ideas from Week 10.

With a not-too-high RSI little changed from Week 17 at 58.49, the MACD continued its bullish run after crossing the signal line in Week 17.

If this is a consolidating step for the Capes it's welcomed, but beware the snap-backs. Looking back over the last year, we can check the candlestick chart around the 2500 level where the index has consolidated or turned, and makes this zone worth watching.

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