Baltic Dry Indices: Week 13 technical commentary.

April 2, 2018

HANDYSIZE


For Week 13, the Handysize Index gapped up but gave a more restrained performance of its bullish run to date. Closing up at 652 on a 7-point range for the week, the index worked its way closer to our 675 - 700 upside resistance target.

The RSI gained a little to 53.10, staying relatively neutral, while the MACD continued upwards from its crossing to the bullish side in Week 12. This maintained strength in the index may continue further, even though the week-by-week stair-steps gradually reduce in size.

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SUPRAMAX

 

The Supramax Index took a step back from its headlong charge upwards in Week 13, closing down on the week at 1080. Retreating from the peakish area seen in October 2017, our previous mention of the index taking a rest may be proving out.

Our 1100 - 1200 upside resistance target may be showing some strength at the moment, but our downside support ideas at 975 - 1000 aren't that far away. The RSI drew back to 63.58 with the index pause, while the MACD continued its bullish run, weakening a little with Week 13's index action - altogether, not big signs of weakness; there may be some upward momentum yet.

Week 13 has not really been born under a bad sign, however it bears careful observation. Except for October 2017's slightly higher peak, the Supramax Index hasn't seen these dizzy heights since late 2014.

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PANAMAX

 

Taking a steady run downwards for the 4-day Week 13, the Panamax Index gapped down and closed at 1495 for the week.

This close has the index approaching our 1350 - 1400 support zone. The bullishness of the MACD weakened heavily with the move, and the RSI found its way back to neutrality once more at 42.70.

It remains to be seen whether this weakness recovers into the sideways travel we were hoping for last week, or if the 1350 - 1400 area proves more attractive.

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CAPESIZE

For Week 13, the shaky Capesize Index pushed the boundaries and tumbled again to close at 1010. So what about all this bottoming talk, we hear you say - to which we offer that famous Keynesian line: "Markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent".

Here's an interesting note though; notice the RSI which at 17.00 was about this low at the last Capesize turnaround in mid-2017. A good sign, perhaps? The MACD's bearishness has also shown signs of weakness as it pushed further into negative numbers.

There isn't much room left until reaching our downside support target in the 500 region, but hope springs eternal as our upside resistance target is the now-lofty 2500 - 2700 zone. Think positive....

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