Baltic Dry Indices: Week 12 technical commentary.

March 26, 2018

HANDYSIZE


In Week 12 the Handysize Index continued its climb to close at 641, another solid 12-point run. Now that the index has pushed through our 625 - 630 resistance zone, are we looking at that area becoming support? Possibly.

The strength in the index can't be denied at this point, and the MACD has crossed its signal line into bullish territory - just barely.

The RSI gained slightly to 51.98 - not close to peakishness yet. If the 625 - 630 region proves to be an area of attraction, we could be looking at some support building a little lower in our previously mentioned 575 - 600 zone. The upside resistance given the strength of these moves may now be around 675 - 700. 

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SUPRAMAX

 

The Supramax Index showed another solid up-move for Week 12, closing at 1121. At 22 points for the week, the move was more restrained than recent hops upward.

Our upside resistance target around 1200 is within reach, and we expected the 1100 - 1200 area to be a restraining factor.
The RSI crept up to 69.02, making a bid for peakish territory while the MACD charged ahead bullishly, now lagging the up move.

At the moment, the index is within a few points of the peak seen in mid-October 2017. Our older support zone of 975 - 1000 could be coming into play again, and the next while may give us some consolidation hints between that area and the 1200 mark.

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PANAMAX

 

Showing a slight retreat for Week 12, the Panamax Index dropped by 34 points, backing away from previous peaks seen towards the end of 2017.

Our previous doubts about the momentum in the index proved out a little, as the RSI angled downwards and the MACD's bullish run weakened a little.

We've mentioned the 1350 - 1400 zone before as a support and/or attraction zone, and perhaps this consolidation will give us some sideways travel between there and our 1675 - 1700 resistance zone.

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CAPESIZE

 

For Week 12, the Capesize Index hung around the mid 1100s and gave us a hint of reaching a bottom. With a tight range and a small lower wick on the weekly candlestick, it's not quite a resounding signal but something to be watched all the same.

Our previous noises about bottoming action in the Capes are backed up once again by a very low RSI at 15.98 and a MACD in seriously negative values. Should we see a snap-back on the Capesize bungee cord, our upside resistance target in the 2500 - 2750 region may come into play.....or, given Cape volatility, may have all the resistance of a wet paper bag.

At this point however the index is closer to lower support in the 500 area than upper resistance. Let's keep our eyes open for downward tumbles like we saw in Week 10.

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