Baltic Dry Indices: Week 11 technical commentary

March 19, 2018

HANDYSIZE


Week 11 was another positive one for the Handysize Index, although without the exuberance of the previous couple of weeks. Now firmly into our upside resistance target zone of 625 - 630, the index showed a smaller spread on the week of some 12 points.

Closing at 627, there is still room for some upward movement, but this move bears watching for any signs of fizzling. A sign of continued positivity would be the previously-mentioned 625 - 630 region becoming a support area.

The RSI showed a slightly neutral value of 50.21, while the MACD continued its attempt at crossing the signal line
to the bullish side; all signs of upward mobility, but let's keep a weather eye on our 575 - 600 possible support should any weakness develop.

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SUPRAMAX


For Week 11 the Supramax Index showed a solid gap-up move, and closed the week up at 1091. Close to the peak seen in Oct. 2017, the index displayed a bit more exuberance (there's that word again) than the "sedate" motion we were hoping for previously.

However, the overall view of the Supras suggests some steam in this move yet. We're still hopeful for a rest of sorts in the 1100 - 1200 area, our upside resistance target. Should the overall index optimism continue, that zone could become support for further upward movement.

Caution as always of course, as the Supra Index hasn't seen these levels since late 2014: further rapid up-moves could bring the index into pull-back territory. For Week 11 though, the MACD bullishly crossed the signal line, while the RSI continued to consolidate in the mid-60s. No signs of possible peakishness yet, but a week is plenty time for things to change (...if watching TV politics is any indication).

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PANAMAX


Taking a rest from Week 10's upswing, the Panamax Index registered a flattish range of 6 points for Week 11, closing at 1618. With the index now back in the peak areas seen over the past year, it remains to be seen how much steam the Panamaxes have left.

Our upside target at 1675 - 1700 is still in play, and we've seen the Panamaxes take these small consolidatory steps before. The MACD crossed into bullish territory in Week 11, confirming its tentative foray in Week 10. The RSI stepped back to the mid-50s, more towards neutral, hinting there may be some upward momentum left.

Being close to previous peaks, we'll keep an eye on our downside support/attraction zone around 1350 - 1400 just in case.

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CAPESIZE


For Week 11 the Capesize Index, while still in "bottoming" territory, took a disconcerting run downhill closing at 1203.

The far-reaching range capacity of the Capes might not hint at a 500-ish region attempt yet, however. To alleviate the gloom somewhat, the RSI has fallen to 19.22 and the now-lagging MACD's bearish run is in seriously negative territory.

To say that these indicators suggest a turn-around is premature, but the pressure against downward plunges may be there given their present values. All due caution should be applied - these are the volatile Capes after all.

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