Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 8 technical commentary.

February 26, 2018

 

HANDYSIZE

Still within our support zone of 525 - 550, the Handysize Index rose steadily through Week 8 to close at 534.

Having heaved itself away from our bearish area of concern at the 500 mark, the handies offered some hope of recovery into a comfort zone between our 525 -550 support ideas and possible upside resistance around 600 - 625.

We had some previous cause for optimism, given the low RSI, which rose to 19.44 (still in "bottom" territory) and a MACD that strayed below zero for Week 8. In this post-Lunar New Year week, let's hope the positive numbers in the other indices prove infectious for the Handy Index.

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SUPRAMAX 

 

For Week 8, the Supramax Index also rose steadily to a close at 892. Our worries of the index testing our 750 - 800 support ideas receded with the strong showing for the week.

Should the current strength hold, there may be some upside resistance at the 975 - 1000 level which could give some sideways travel for the Supras.

The RSI rose into neutral territory at 47.54, and the MACD showed a small lean towards bullish while in negative numbers, offering some possible momentum for the latest up-move.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index showed some strength in Week 8, rebounding over 200 points to a close at 1481. This action propped up an index that was showing some gradual weakening since the beginning of 2018.  Well away from our possible support zone around 1250, the index pushed upwards through our upside resistance target in the 1350 - 1400 area.  

The RSI at 52.08 is rising beyond neutral values, but isn't near its upper zone yet, which for the Panamaxes seems to be in the 65 - 75 area.

The MACD turned away from its downward travel with Week 8's move, so should this push against our resistance ideas continue, the index reaching 1650 - 1700 territory may be in the cards. For the moment though, we'll see how this latest move pans out. Our 1350 - 1400 resistance ideas may re-assert themselves and regulate Week 8's exuberance a little.

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CAPESIZE

 

Rising from a 1597 open for Week 8, the Capesize Index levelled off mid-week and closed at 1722. The overall range in the past few weeks' "resting" mode has been roughly 400 points or so, continuing from our ideas in Week 3's commentary. Cruising along midway between our 750 - 800 support zone and our upside 2500 - 2700 resistance area, the index remained in this odd (for the Capes, anyway) sideways channel.

The MACD was well into negative numbers, but with a RSI sailing along just below neutral, there's no real sense of pressure in either an up or down direction.

However, eyeing the candlestick chart and negative MACD 
together suggests a tightening of the range over the past couple of weeks that may hint at an upcoming move;
possibly bullish but no confirmation yet, so we won't pontificate with possibly premature prognostications. 
(Maybe we should have worked that line into the Panamax section...)

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