Baltic Dry Shipping Indices: Week 4 technical commentary

January 28, 2018



Still nudging along in Week 4, deep in our previous 575 - 600 support zone, the Handysize Index seems a little weak. 
Should Week 4's weakness continue, we could be looking at somewhat lower support around 550 or so.

A possible counter to the weakness is the RSI, at 30 for the week. If Week 5 shows some similar weak action, that may mean a RSI in the low 20s and the Handy Index in our aforementioned 550 support ideas. With the MACD in lagging mode, that could suggest a temporary end to the recent downward motion, perhaps even some recovery.

Given the recent weakness though, it's early days yet. Hopefully the slowing in downward momentum will still allow some horizontal index motion.



For Week 4, the Supramax Index took a relatively minor turn downwards, reflecting the somewhat somewhat calm few weeks prior.

As in our previous comments, there may be a relatively tight range of resistance and support developing. To the upside we may have the possibility of some resistance in the 975 - 1000 zone, and perhaps some support developing around 750 - 800. 

The RSI, at 34.21, tends to the lower side of neutral, with the MACD lagging. Any continued leanings towards the 800 mark might give us a RSI low enough to suggest strengthening
support and push-back in that region.



Even as the Panamax Index action in general leveled off, Week 4 showed a decent recovery for the index, closing at 1492. We had mentioned the possibility of support around 1250, but Week 4 gave us a nice bump-up off the mid-1300s. 

The barely-visible bullish candlestick shape seen in Week 3 proved to be something of a springboard it seems.
Given the gradual leveling of the index, there may be a little resistance-testing in the mid-1500s. That zone may prove weak if Week 4's strength continues. 

The RSI continued to skim along just above neutral at 45.9, and the MACD showed a small bullish hook with the week's movement. Perhaps there is some firming support in the 1300s zone after all, but we're still watching the 1250s just in case.




So, what can our charts tell us about the Capesize Index that hasn't already happened? (Which usually occurs with these pages) Our thoughts of an "attraction zone" in the 1500 - 2000 range might even carry a little weight, given Week 4's small recovery and close at 1772.

Not having that much hubris, however, we'll keep an eye on any possible support at the lower end of the 1500 - 2000 area. That zone was tested a little in Week 3, and we might see another poke at it. Casting our usual chicken bones and pixie dust, if we see a potent upward recovery, the index could run into potential resistance in the 3000 - 3500 region.

The RSI at 39.19 stayed around neutral territory, while the MACD in lagging mode hasn't yet shown tendencies to change its bearish path. Further bearishness could be confirmed by a breakthrough of the 1200 - 1250 range.




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