Baltic Dry Shipping Indices: Week 3 technical commentary.

January 22, 2018

 

 

HANDYSIZE
 

For Week 3, the Handysize Index continued to play hard in the midst of our theoretical 575-600 support zone.

Notice the Week 3 candlestick shape, which may hint at a possible recovery from the recent downturn; any climb
upwards though, could be tempered by some possible resistance in the 630-640 area.

With the MACD now lagging in its bearish position, the RSI remained in the neutral 40-ish area. Hopefully this still suggests a leveling off in the index, however being so deep into our support zone a break below our previously mentioned 550 number could lead to further weakness.

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SUPRAMAX

 

The Supramax Index gave us some continued hope in Week 3, posting a very modest gain of three points on the week to close at 911.

Once again, echoing our Week 2 comments, there may some resistance developing above current levels, maybe in the 975 - 1000 zone. We're also keeping a close eye on the 800 area for possible support.

The RSI recovered to the mid-40s with a lagging bearish MACD, possibly setting the stage for a little more-or-less horizontal travel.

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PANAMAX

 

Our hope for a little leveling off in the Panamax Index continued for Week 3, having made similar noises in Week 2.

The fairly tight range for the week tailed off to 1311 and recovered to 1333, only 7 points from the week's open. That gave us a candlestick similar to that also seen for the Handies in Week 3. Straw-grasping perhaps, but it suggests some possible support could be building in the 1250 - 1275 region.

The firmly bearish run in the MACD is somewhat tempered by the still-neutral RSI at 47.45. If the Panamaxes continue the semi-regular swings we've seen since mid-2017, we may see that 1250-ish support yet.

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CAPESIZE

 

Yes, keep an eye on the Capesize Index 2000 level, we said; a "weather eye", we said. Naturally, it seems the barometer has taken a steeper nose-dive than that. After opening at 2293 the Capes had a very black week, closing at 1493.

Taking a closer look, we can see that the Capes are currently around the average seen for most of 2017. The possibility of support looms, but to talk of "support" and "resistance" with the Cape Index is somewhat arrogant - "areas of attraction" seems a more accurate term. The area of attraction over the past year has been somewhere in the 1500 - 2000 range, but are the Capes shaping up for a run to 2017 lows? Week 3's gap down and nosedive could suggest that, but there remains the possibility of that 1500 - 2000 area of attraction.

The RSI is now on the low side of neutral at 35.23; a value in the low 20s would suggest a bottoming point. The MACD, firmly bearish, may be lagging by this point and the index may be preparing for a rest, although there are no direct signs as yet.

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