Baltic Dry Shipping Indices: Week 48 technical commentary

December 4, 2017

 

HANDYSIZE

 

Taking a rest in Week 48, the Handysize Index stuck to a snug seven-point range, closing up at 626. The action was almost a mirror image of Week 47's eight-point spread.

Somewhat above our 575 - 600 possible support, it will be interesting to see if the handies use this as a base to build on towards the end of the year.

Keeping us cautious though, the MACD is approaching the bearish signal, but may skim along without touching its signal line below. The RSI is still in a high zone for the handy index, so we'll be watching carefully for any continuation in the bearishness.

 

SUPRAMAX

 

Closing Week 48 in a gap-up to 944, the Supramax Index has shown a nice comeback, and is playing around our possible support/resistance ideas in the 800 - 975 area. 

Should this region turn into firm support, we could see some building back into the previous 975 - 1000 zone.

However, with an MACD still firmly bearish, and the RSI weakly neutral at 55.89, we have a little way to go to overcome the recent weakness.

 

PANAMAX


The volatility in the Panamax Index increased in Week 48, showing a strong upward swing from 1299 to a close at 1494. The "soft landing" we mentioned may have turned into a trampoline - we even muttered about "some attraction" back to the 1400 area.

Well, the index is firmly back into a previous support/resistance band in the 1400s, and we'll see if the index likes it here or wants to move on to greater things.

The MACD even took a rest, weakly turning towards the upside. Also, the RSI returned to the upper 50s, a bit above neutral. Whether or not the volatility continues to increase, the Panamaxes almost made it back into their previous upward-marching channel.

 

CAPESIZE

 

Well, look at that: for Week 48, the Cape Index took a headlong charge upwards. Quelle surprise. Back in previous mutterings, we talked of support zones anywhere from 2700 to 3000, depending if the upward pokes in the Capes turned into a full breakout. The latest surge might be at the point where 3250, our previous resistance target, may now become a support area.

These are the Capes, folks. By the time we've got a weekly range of numbers to look at, the index has already done what we're blathering about. Or not.

For example, our chicken-bone casting has given us an upside resistance target somewhere in the 4250 area, which we're close to already. The RSI found itself back in peaky territory at 71.40, even if our MACD may have temporarily cured itself of its previous doldrums and gained new bullish energy.

This is still an isolated gap-up on Week 48, and these heights in the Cape Index still cause a little Icarus syndrome, I tell ya. Some firmer consolidation would be nice.

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