Baltic Dry Indices: Week 44 technical commentary

November 6, 2017

 

HANDYSIZE

 

The witch of November mentioned in our last post seems to have nipped the Handysize Index in the tail for Week 44. Showing a dark down-candle, the handies bear watching to see if our possible 550 - 600 support zone has some effect.

This not-fully-formed "evening star" formation in the last three candlesticks on our chart could be interpreted as a sign of weakness in the Handies. Week 44's weakness could prove to be a consolidation step on the way to our previous 750 upside resistance target, although that number looks a little weak at the moment.

The RSI has pulled back a little, but is still up in peakish territory. Some caution is required as the MACD also shows slight weakening, not forgetting that the index has just retreated a little from a somewhat precarious 3-year high. 

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SUPRAMAX

 

After the Week 41 bounce upwards above our old 875 - 900 support target, in Week 44 the Supramax Index appeared to be taking another run downward at our later 975 - 1000 support area.

Should these retracements and surges continue, the weekly Supra Index will have been consistently in a 100-point wide upward channel (more or less) for a good two months.

The RSI has retreated to the mid-60s, with a noticeable 'knuckle' showing in the bullish MACD. At present highs and slightly heavier retracements, these may be mounting signs of weakness in the Supra Index, although the low side of our upward channel is still intact.

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PANAMAX

 

In Week 44, the Panamax Index made a partial recovery from the previous two weeks' cloudiness, and carried on within its upward channel. Recent swings in the index can be seen becoming a little more extreme as the Panamaxes climb - perhaps these three-year highs are playing a part.

Our possible support zone around 1400 still stands, and the next upside target is still in the 1750 - 1775 range. As with the Handies and Cape indices, there's some concern over recent formations - notice the candle formation for weeks 41, 42 & 43; very similar to the bearish "evening star", but not quite. This may be something to watch in panel-set indices like the Baltics, as opposed to an open traded market.

The measured pace in the Panamaxes has kept the RSI reasonably neutral. The somewhat flatter MACD seems a little weak in its general bullishness, although its upward stair-stepping can be seen throughout this current up-trend.

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CAPESIZE


For Week 44, the Capesize Index did some loitering just below our 3250 resistance target. From this three-year high, it remains to be seen what capers the Capes will get up to. Checking the candlestick chart shows us a somewhat bearish-looking "evening star" formation, but not clearly formed.

The RSI continues along at peakish levels, while our MACD is now showing a more distinct 'knuckle'. Displaying these types
of weaknesses at the current highs could be cause for concern.

While the low end of this upward channel has stayed consistent for the past two to three months, the upper side has flattened out. While our ideas of possible support in the 2000 area still stand, there may be a support zone in the 2500 - 2700 range, if the upward weakness continues.

 

 

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