Baltic Dry indices - Week 35 technical commentary

September 4, 2017

 

HANDYSIZE:

For Week 34, we made hopeful noises about the Handy index consolidating around 490-525. The slight build seen towards 490 during last week (35) may indicate some more foundation building
for the Handies.

If this gentle upward trend continues, we may see some positive signs from the MACD indicator. The RSI continues to build, and it's not near peaky territory yet.

Looking to recent years, late-season humps build in the Handy index. The highs of late 2013 tailed off in 2014 and 2015, later seeing some decent recovery in 2016.
Should we hope for some late-season highs coupled with a general positive sentiment in the handies? Where would that take us? Such lofty dreams! For now, we'd be happy seeing support continuing in that 490-525 spot.

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SUPRAMAX:

The Supra Index has continued to build, pushing a little through our target zone of 800-850. Eyeballing week 35's rather tight range could indicate a rest is coming, perhaps a little consolidation and hopefully some continued index-build for the same reasons as the Handies - overall positivity in this dry bulk sector and some late season build in rates.

 Once again our pair of technical indicators is in the positive zone; the RSI in the 60s, not appearing peakish yet, and the MACD in the positive zone.

The solidity of support around the 800 mark might prove to be a stronger cushion than seen in the last two downward excursions in the Supra Index. 

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PANAMAX:

Although still looking weak, the Panamax index continued to hold just above the recent 1100 support area. 

 

 A flattening RSI and MACD might reinforce weakness but this was tempered by the relatively tight range, the index maintaining a strong attraction to the 1200 spot without much variance either way.
If the resilience of the 1100-1200 level fails though, there may be a spell of gloomy wandering down in the 750-1000 range. 
We shall see what the fall season brings us, with the general upward sentiment seen in dry bulk. Maybe it'll be a strong counter-force to this weakness.

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CAPESIZE:
The Capes continue to show some signs of faltering, and our concerns from our last comments still hold in the light of 
another downward week in this index.

 The run-ups for the Capes tend to leave support far behind,
 and should some support build in the current 2500 area, it would be a good thing.

 For the moment however, rolling chicken bones and consulting our oracle has us keeping a wary eye on that 1500-1700 area. The still-positive MACD belies possible weakness, and our RSI has flattened out somewhat. Onward and upward? We can hope.
 

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