Handysize Technical commentary, Week 14: Beware sudden enthusiasm.

April 10, 2017

Back during Week #11 (March 13 – 19) the Baltic Handysize

bulk carrier index passed upwards through our possible 
support/resistance area of 475 – 500.

The index had previously pierced this area in its downward run post-New Year 2017. 


Referring to the charts, we can see the index built on support  around 300 in mid-2016, and again in the 375-400
zone, just prior to the volatility seen over the US Presidential election period.

Should the current upward trend continue, some support may consolidate in the previously-mentioned 475-500 region as things average out.
There may be some weakening of this trend shortly; however the MACD crossed into positive territory in Week #12 (Mar 20 -26).

The RSI showed upward over-reach during 2016, seeing values in the 80-90 area.These days, the RSI is in neutral territory in the 40s.

 Naturally, beware sudden enthusiasm amongst ship-owners causing major newbuild orders. Our floor area of 300 may then prove to be a testing ground for support (or lack thereof, hah!). 

Splash 247 reported a series of recent KamsarMax orders.
Of course, a Kamsarmax is outside our Handysize discussion, but newbuild ordering can be a very contagious virus. Any slowdown in scrapping of older vessels, in a scramble for better rates, will have a similar effect. This nasty fever may be rising.

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