Golden Week Surprise

October 5, 2016

Good Morning Superior Maritime,

 

Well as Gomer Pyle USMC would say enthusiastically “Surprise, Surprise, Surprise.”  The Capes have spiked up a bit during “Golden Week,” and in fact, the BCI is the only component indice in the BDI that firmed today. 

Cape 5 T/C ~ $12,775

Cape 4 T/C ~ $12,015

BPI 4 T/C ~ $5,600

BSI T/C ~ $7,100

BHSI T/C ~ $6,000

 

Dry FFA:

The crew at FIS tells us the paper markets are all trading up, or in the Soups case, unchanged.  The Cape curve for Oct. is up over 10%.

Nov. 2016

Capes $10,600 +500

Pmax $6,700 +50

Soups $7,200 unchanged

 

Dry Scoop:  Our friends at Arctic Securities put out one of the best daily updates in the business.  Erik Stavseth and Andreas Wikborg are data miners and we love their work.

From yesterdays report “Brazilian iron ore exports level Y-o-Y in Sep-16 – Brazilian iron ore exports hit 35.3m tons in Sep-16 – a marginal decline from 35.6m in Sep-15. Q3/16 exports hit an average of 33.4m tons compared to H1/16 volumes of 29.6m tons – a seasonal effect seen every year. Although Q3 exports were only marginally higher (100.1m tons vs 96.7m tons) Y-o-Y, additional production capacity is expected to come on over the next two years – ramping up Brazilian iron ore exports. However, the higher volumes In H2 have contributed positively to Capesize demand in the Atlantic and in our view been an important driver for the surge in rates for the larger vessels. Capes have generated north of USD 10k/day for a full 11 straight days – but appear to be losing some of the momentum given China being off for the week. We would not want ship owners to get dizzying ideas of actually being able to pay their banks just yet!”

 

 

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